Vietnamese shrimp seeks opportunities in China amid US-China trade tensions

Long-term opportunities for shrimp suppliers

Recently, China announced its Food and Nutrition Development Guidelines for 2025–2030, emphasizing improved dietary quality through increased protein consumption. The new guidelines not only highlight protein’s role but also propose policies to boost fish and seafood consumption, including integrating these products into school meal programs. This shift could significantly stimulate seafood demand, including shrimp. In the long term, China is expected to increase imports of mid-priced seafood products such as pangasius and medium to small-sized shrimp.

In 2023, China imported a record 4.67 million tons of seafood and maintained a high volume of 4.5 million tons in 2024. Specifically, China is the world’s largest shrimp importer, with over 1.10 million tons in 2023 and more than 1 million tons in 2024.

Short-term plateau in warm-water shrimp consumption

However, short-term demand for frozen warm-water shrimp in China has plateaued, including imports from its two largest suppliers, Ecuador and India. According to Chinese customs data, China imported 70,067 tons of frozen warm-water shrimp valued at USD 356 million in April 2025—up 5% in volume and 6% in value compared to the same month last year. In the first four months, imports totaled 269,689 tons worth USD 1.45 billion, down 9% in volume but up 1% in value year-on-year, with average prices rising 11% to USD 5.36/kg.

Ecuador remains China’s largest supplier, accounting for 75% of China’s shrimp imports by volume, delivering 203,100 tons valued at USD 1.013 billion in the first four months—down 7% in volume but up 4% in value.

India, the second-largest supplier, saw declining shipments in April. Continuous import decreases reflect reduced demand from Chinese processors for headless shrimp, India’s main export product to China used for reprocessing and domestic sales. In the first four months, imports from India dropped 21% to 33,187 tons, the lowest volume since 2022, and well below the 2019 record.

This trend is attributed to China’s sluggish economy, rising domestic shrimp production, competition from various popular seafood items, and consumer behavior sensitive to macroeconomic pressures.

Impact of US-China trade tensions on Vietnamese shrimp in China

As the US escalates retaliatory tariffs on key Chinese goods, China faces pressure to reorient exports and boost domestic consumption. This could positively affect domestic food sectors, including protein-rich shrimp, which the Chinese government encourages.

Moreover, restricted access to the US market forces Chinese processors to focus on domestic consumption or re-export to non-US markets, increasing stable demand for raw materials with clear traceability—such as Vietnamese shrimp—offering growth opportunities.

Compared to Ecuador and India, Vietnam benefits from geographic proximity, lower shipping costs, stable trade relations, and high-quality reliability, positioning Vietnamese shrimp well to expand market share in China.

However, risks remain, including exchange rate fluctuations of the Chinese yuan, stricter import technical controls, and a potential preference for domestic products during economic hardship. China’s own large shrimp production industry may also ramp up exports to alternative markets due to US restrictions, intensifying competition against Vietnamese shrimp.

What Vietnamese shrimp exporters should do

To seize opportunities from the US-China trade dynamics and China’s new food policies, Vietnamese shrimp exporters need to:

• Strengthen cooperation with local distribution channels (wholesale markets, supermarket chains, e-commerce platforms like JD and Hema) to directly reach Chinese consumers.
• Diversify product segments, ranging from medium-sized shrimp to high-value products like lobster and fresh tiger shrimp, tailored to different consumption regions.
• Strictly comply with food safety, traceability, and origin standards to maintain credibility in formal trade.
• Leverage trade agreements such as RCEP and ACFTA to reduce import costs and enhance competitiveness against rivals.