Long-term opportunities for shrimp suppliers
Recently, China announced its Food and Nutrition Development Guidelines for 2025–2030, emphasizing improved dietary quality through increased protein consumption. The new guidelines not only highlight protein’s role but also propose policies to boost fish and seafood consumption, including integrating these products into school meal programs. This shift could significantly stimulate seafood demand, including shrimp. In the long term, China is expected to increase imports of mid-priced seafood products such as pangasius and medium to small-sized shrimp.
In 2023, China imported a record 4.67 million tons of seafood and maintained a high volume of 4.5 million tons in 2024. Specifically, China is the world’s largest shrimp importer, with over 1.10 million tons in 2023 and more than 1 million tons in 2024.
Short-term plateau in warm-water shrimp consumption
However, short-term demand for frozen warm-water shrimp in China has plateaued, including imports from its two largest suppliers, Ecuador and India. According to Chinese customs data, China imported 70,067 tons of frozen warm-water shrimp valued at USD 356 million in April 2025—up 5% in volume and 6% in value compared to the same month last year. In the first four months, imports totaled 269,689 tons worth USD 1.45 billion, down 9% in volume but up 1% in value year-on-year, with average prices rising 11% to USD 5.36/kg.
Ecuador remains China’s largest supplier, accounting for 75% of China’s shrimp imports by volume, delivering 203,100 tons valued at USD 1.013 billion in the first four months—down 7% in volume but up 4% in value.
India, the second-largest supplier, saw declining shipments in April. Continuous import decreases reflect reduced demand from Chinese processors for headless shrimp, India’s main export product to China used for reprocessing and domestic sales. In the first four months, imports from India dropped 21% to 33,187 tons, the lowest volume since 2022, and well below the 2019 record.
This trend is attributed to China’s sluggish economy, rising domestic shrimp production, competition from various popular seafood items, and consumer behavior sensitive to macroeconomic pressures.
Impact of US-China trade tensions on Vietnamese shrimp in China
As the US escalates retaliatory tariffs on key Chinese goods, China faces pressure to reorient exports and boost domestic consumption. This could positively affect domestic food sectors, including protein-rich shrimp, which the Chinese government encourages.
Moreover, restricted access to the US market forces Chinese processors to focus on domestic consumption or re-export to non-US markets, increasing stable demand for raw materials with clear traceability—such as Vietnamese shrimp—offering growth opportunities.
Compared to Ecuador and India, Vietnam benefits from geographic proximity, lower shipping costs, stable trade relations, and high-quality reliability, positioning Vietnamese shrimp well to expand market share in China.
However, risks remain, including exchange rate fluctuations of the Chinese yuan, stricter import technical controls, and a potential preference for domestic products during economic hardship. China’s own large shrimp production industry may also ramp up exports to alternative markets due to US restrictions, intensifying competition against Vietnamese shrimp.
What Vietnamese shrimp exporters should do
To seize opportunities from the US-China trade dynamics and China’s new food policies, Vietnamese shrimp exporters need to:
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Brazil became the largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, with export value reaching US$44 million, up 22,142% year-on-year and accounting for 49% of Vietnam’s total tilapia exports. In August alone, exports to Brazil reached US$4 million. However, behind this remarkable growth is a market that is imposing increasingly stringent requirements on imported supplies.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tuna exports sustained their upward trajectory in August 2026, though the pace remained modest at just 2%. The month saw divergent trends across key markets: the US maintained its leading position, Japan and Canada improved, Russia surged and the EU continued to experience a steep downturn. These developments suggest that exporters are entering the final months of the year amid a market environment marked by greater uncertainty.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Congalsa has acquired the entire charter capital of Lenger Seafood Vietnam, giving it full ownership of the business and its Nam Dinh processing facility.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Ninh Binh Province is entering a peak period of action against illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, focusing on thoroughly addressing violations, closely monitoring fishing vessels at ports and preventing vessels from violating regulations and operating illegally in foreign waters ahead of the European Commission’s (EC) upcoming inspection in 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) The application of biotechnology in seed production is increasingly viewed as a strategic imperative to upgrade pangasius fingerling quality, optimize farming efficiency and anchor sustainable industry development.
(vasep.com.vn) On September 15, 2026, in Can Tho, VASEP and ASC jointly organized a training course titled “New ASC standards: updates and practical implementation guidance for farms, businesses and aquafeed mills”. Beyond briefing stakeholders on updated ASC requirements for aquaculture facilities and feed production, the workshop dedicated substantial floor time to directly addressing on-the-ground compliance bottlenecks encountered by Vietnamese enterprises.
(searfood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports continued to post positive results in the first eight months of 2026, with total export value reaching US$90 million, up 43% year-on-year. However, exports in August alone stood at US$11 million, down 8%, reflecting uneven market developments. Brazil remained the leading market, while Japan recorded notable growth, opening up new opportunities for Vietnamese tilapia products.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.3 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 12% year on year. However, growth has begun to slow and become more differentiated across markets, while the U.S. and EU continue to present significant challenges. The latest insights from the Global Shrimp Forum 2026 (GSF 2026), held in early September, also indicate that the final months of the year will remain highly competitive as global supply continues to expand and buyers increasingly focus on quality, product specifications, supply stability and the ability to meet market-specific demand.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In August 2026, Vietnam’s seafood exports reached $1.14 billion, up 6% year on year. Cumulative eight-month exports rose 11.8% to $8.00 billion, though momentum has cooled compared to the 12.8% growth seen through July. China - Hong Kong and ASEAN are offsetting weakness in the U.S, EU and partly Japan. This divergence will likely widen in Q4 as trade tariffs and traceability requirements directly weigh on new orders.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam–Russia relations are entering a new phase of cooperation, with a focus on expanding trade, investment and economic connectivity. Against this backdrop, tuna is emerging as one of the seafood products with significant growth potential in the Russian market. Export data for the first seven months of 2026 show strong growth in Vietnamese tuna exports to Russia. However, turning this momentum into sustainable market share will require businesses to address challenges related to logistics, payment and supply competition.
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