Long-term opportunities for shrimp suppliers
Recently, China announced its Food and Nutrition Development Guidelines for 2025–2030, emphasizing improved dietary quality through increased protein consumption. The new guidelines not only highlight protein’s role but also propose policies to boost fish and seafood consumption, including integrating these products into school meal programs. This shift could significantly stimulate seafood demand, including shrimp. In the long term, China is expected to increase imports of mid-priced seafood products such as pangasius and medium to small-sized shrimp.
In 2023, China imported a record 4.67 million tons of seafood and maintained a high volume of 4.5 million tons in 2024. Specifically, China is the world’s largest shrimp importer, with over 1.10 million tons in 2023 and more than 1 million tons in 2024.
Short-term plateau in warm-water shrimp consumption
However, short-term demand for frozen warm-water shrimp in China has plateaued, including imports from its two largest suppliers, Ecuador and India. According to Chinese customs data, China imported 70,067 tons of frozen warm-water shrimp valued at USD 356 million in April 2025—up 5% in volume and 6% in value compared to the same month last year. In the first four months, imports totaled 269,689 tons worth USD 1.45 billion, down 9% in volume but up 1% in value year-on-year, with average prices rising 11% to USD 5.36/kg.
Ecuador remains China’s largest supplier, accounting for 75% of China’s shrimp imports by volume, delivering 203,100 tons valued at USD 1.013 billion in the first four months—down 7% in volume but up 4% in value.
India, the second-largest supplier, saw declining shipments in April. Continuous import decreases reflect reduced demand from Chinese processors for headless shrimp, India’s main export product to China used for reprocessing and domestic sales. In the first four months, imports from India dropped 21% to 33,187 tons, the lowest volume since 2022, and well below the 2019 record.
This trend is attributed to China’s sluggish economy, rising domestic shrimp production, competition from various popular seafood items, and consumer behavior sensitive to macroeconomic pressures.
Impact of US-China trade tensions on Vietnamese shrimp in China
As the US escalates retaliatory tariffs on key Chinese goods, China faces pressure to reorient exports and boost domestic consumption. This could positively affect domestic food sectors, including protein-rich shrimp, which the Chinese government encourages.
Moreover, restricted access to the US market forces Chinese processors to focus on domestic consumption or re-export to non-US markets, increasing stable demand for raw materials with clear traceability—such as Vietnamese shrimp—offering growth opportunities.
Compared to Ecuador and India, Vietnam benefits from geographic proximity, lower shipping costs, stable trade relations, and high-quality reliability, positioning Vietnamese shrimp well to expand market share in China.
However, risks remain, including exchange rate fluctuations of the Chinese yuan, stricter import technical controls, and a potential preference for domestic products during economic hardship. China’s own large shrimp production industry may also ramp up exports to alternative markets due to US restrictions, intensifying competition against Vietnamese shrimp.
What Vietnamese shrimp exporters should do
To seize opportunities from the US-China trade dynamics and China’s new food policies, Vietnamese shrimp exporters need to:
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In January 2026, Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached USD 379.6 million, up 22% compared to the same period in 2025. The double-digit growth in the very first month of the year signals a relatively positive recovery in orders, particularly in Asian markets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) From the very beginning of 2026, India’s shrimp industry has received a series of favorable trade signals: U.S. reciprocal tariffs have been reduced, while the successful conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU has opened prospects for eliminating nearly all seafood tariffs in the coming years. This shift not only enables Indian shrimp to quickly offset declines in the U.S. market, but also reshapes the global competitive landscape, placing greater pressure on Vietnamese shrimp exporters in terms of price, market share, and strategic positioning.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Entering 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius industry is recording many positive signals, both in terms of raw fish prices and export prospects. Export turnover this year is projected to reach approximately USD 2.3 billion. Amid ongoing volatility in the global market, diversifying export destinations, reducing dependence on major markets, and effectively leveraging free trade agreements (FTAs) are considered key to maintaining sustainable growth and creating new momentum for the pangasius sector.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With forecasts indicating that weather conditions in 2026 may become more complex—featuring prolonged heatwaves, unseasonal rains, and increased salinity intrusion—the agricultural sector of Can Tho City advises brackish water shrimp farmers to strictly follow the seasonal farming calendar and strengthen pond environmental management to minimize risks and improve production efficiency.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On February 4, a working delegation led by the Authority of Telecommunications (Ministry of Science and Technology) met with the Management Board of Cat Lo Fishing Port (Phuoc Thang Ward, Ho Chi Minh City) to comprehensively review the installation of Vessel Monitoring Systems (VMS), assess signal connectivity, and evaluate the effectiveness of information technology applications in fisheries management across the city.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The year 2025 marked a significant milestone for China’s lobster market, with total imports reaching a record high and the supply structure undergoing major changes. Amid this surge, Vietnam’s lobster exports—especially green lobster—accelerated dramatically, reaching new highs and contributing substantially to Vietnam’s overall record shrimp export value.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With a range of synchronized solutions, from institutional improvements and strengthened communication to strict fleet control, Quang Ninh is stepping up efforts to combat illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, determined to join the country in soon having the European Commission’s (EC) “yellow card” lifted.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The year 2025 closed with a remarkable milestone for Vietnam’s shrimp industry. According to Vietnam Customs, the country’s total shrimp export turnover in 2025 reached USD 4.6 billion, up 19% compared to 2024 and the highest level ever recorded.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) During the 2026–2030 period, Quang Tri province aims to convert 771 fishing vessels currently engaged in activities detrimental to marine resources and the ecological environment to more environmentally friendly fishing practices or shift entirely to other economic sectors.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) 2025 recorded a breakthrough growth in Vietnam’s tilapia exports, in which the U.S market emerging as the primary growth driver. The total export turnover of Vietnamese tilapia to the United States reached $53.15 million during the year, surging 173% year-on-year and accounting for 54% of Vietnam’s total tilapia export value, thereby making the U.S the largest import market for this commodity. Compared to 2024, tilapia exports to the U.S posted robust growth, reflecting the import demand as well as the ability of Vietnamese enterprises to capitalize on market opportunities amidst volatile global competitive dynamics.
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