Vietnam shrimp exports to be stable by the end of 2018

Shrimp exports decreased in QII/2018

After a rise in the first quarter, Vietnam’s shrimp exports in QII/2018 slightly decreased. Exports reached US$275.2 million in April 2018, down 0.4%; the figure in May was US$309.9 million, down 5.7%; and the figure in June reached $ 308.2 million, down 7.8% year on year.

In QII/2018, shrimp prices in most of main shrimp producing countries were on the downward trend. Prices of raw whiteleg shrimp from Vietnam decreased by 20-30% from April to mid-June. Prices of shrimp in Thailand and India decreased sharply during April and May. Prices at whiteleg shrimp farms sized 120 pcs/kg in the first week of July also fell to a five-year low of US$4.30 per kg.

Whiteleg shrimp exports increased

In the first 6 months of the year, exports of whiteleg shrimp occupied the main share of 67.2% in total shrimp exports; followed by black tiger shrimp with 23.7% and marine shrimp with 9.1%.

Up to June this year, whiteleg shrimp exports increased by 14% while exports of black tiger shrimp decreased by 6% over the same period last year. The export value of processed and live/fresh/frozen whiteleg shrimp increased by 21% and 9%, respectively; while that of processed and live/fresh/frozen black tiger shrimp went down 18% and 5%.

The growth slowed down in the first half of this year as exports to major markets declined, such as Japan (-11.2%), China (-13.2%) and the U.S (-7.5%). Exports to the EU stayed quite stable with the good growth rate of 38% and significantly contributed to total shrimp exports in the period. Shrimp exports to South Korea and Australia remain the good growth rates of 24% and 16%, respectively.

The EU

The EU was considered as the potential importing market of Vietnamese shrimp in 2017 and the first half of this year. Shrimp exports to the EU in all months of the period recorded the positive growth. In the first six months of this year, shrimp exports to the EU hit US$405.6 million, up 38% over the same period last year. Exports to the three major importing markets (the Netherlands, the UK, Germany) all increased by 74%, 23% and 53%, respectively.

Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the EU in the first half of this year maintained the high growth rate thanks to tax incentives.

The U.S

Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the U.S in the first half of this year decreased by 7.5% to eye US$255.7 million. In 2017, while shrimp exports to markets all showed the positive growth, those to the U.S decreased by 7% compared with 2016. The higher anti-dumping tax was considered as one of the reasons for the fall in shrimp exports to the market.

The tax rate in the 12^th administrative review (POR12) from 1^st Feb 2016- 31^st Jan 2017 up to 25.39% was considered too high compared to the previous decisions. Although lawyers have found confusion in the DOC calculation and the preliminary results are only for reference, however, this decision is more or less worrying both buyers and sellers.

In addition, at the end of April 2018, shrimp was officially introduced by the U.S National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) into the U.S Seafood Import Monitoring Program (SIMP). Accordingly, as of 31^st Dec 2018, shrimp importers must comply fully with the requirements of the SIMP program.

Despite this, Vietnamese shrimp has much room to grow in this market because Vietnam's shrimp export turnover to this market accounted for 10%/year (about 60,000 MT), while the export capacity of Vietnam can reach 150,000 MT.

According to statistics from 2015 up to now, the volume of shrimp imports into the U.Ss always increased sharply after June, so the second half of the year will be a favorable time for enterprises to promote their exports to this market.

In the second half of this year, when the import demand from the main markets and shrimp prices stabilize again, Vietnam’s shrimp exports are projected to total US$4 billion for the whole year.