Key Markets Show Strong Growth
South Korea and Thailand remain the two largest markets, importing USD 49 million (up 21%) and USD 46 million (up 24%) respectively in the first seven months of the year. Both markets consume these products directly and reprocess products for regional distribution.
Within CPTPP markets, export value of this product group rose 23% to USD 31 million. Japan led with a 25% growth, reflecting signs of recovery in traditional processed products. Malaysia and Singapore also showed positive growth at 19% and 21%, respectively.
Notably, in July 2025 alone, exports to China and Hong Kong skyrocketed by 104% year-on-year. Cumulative exports for the first seven months reached $26 million, rise 57%, driven by rising demand for both consumption and reprocessing.
The EU emerged as a bright spot, with July imports surging 89%. Total exports for the period reached $16 million, up 47%, led by Lithuania and Spain.
By contrast, the U.S. market remained modest at $6 million with a slight increase (2%). However, July 2025 saw a sharp 74% decline compared to July 2024, due to new countervailing tariff policies and cautious importers.
Global market context
On the international market, global surimi supply remains abundant, keeping prices under downward pressure. Japanese buyers are selective, accepting price increases only for premium grade-A surimi, while lower-grade products maintain stable prices. In the EU, declining inflation has boosted purchasing power, supporting demand for mid-value processed products. South Korea increased seafood imports in the first half of 2025, strengthening its role as one of Vietnam’s key markets.
Meanwhile, the U.S is considered the most policy-risk-prone market. New countervailing tariffs may affect potentially undermining competitiveness, especially as exemptions for specific HS codes remain unclear.
Outlook for the second half of 2025
In the latter half of 2025, Asian markets are expected to continue driving growth in Vietnam’s fish cakes and surimi exports, supported by stable demand and flexible pricing. The EU is forecast to maintain its recovery momentum, with a focus on convenient, small-packaged products catering to cost-conscious consumers. China and Hong Kong show strong growth potential but face intense competition from Russian and ASEAN suppliers.
The U.S. remains the most unpredictable market. Businesses are advised to secure contracts only with clear tariff confirmations.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tuna exports sustained their upward trajectory in August 2026, though the pace remained modest at just 2%. The month saw divergent trends across key markets: the US maintained its leading position, Japan and Canada improved, Russia surged and the EU continued to experience a steep downturn. These developments suggest that exporters are entering the final months of the year amid a market environment marked by greater uncertainty.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached $3.3 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 12% year on year. However, growth momentum is moderating and market divergece is becoming more pronounced, while the US and EU continue to present significant challenges. The latest insights from the Global shrimp forum 2026 (GSF 2026), held in early September, also indicate that the final months of the year will remain highly competitive as global supply continues to expand and buyers place greater emphasis on quality, product specifications, supply consistency and the ability to meet market-specific demand.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports continued to grow in August 2026, bringing total export value in the first eight months of the year to US$1.5 billion, up 10% year-on-year. August exports alone reached US$205 million, up 6%. However, market performance has become increasingly divergent, with China and Brazil posting positive growth while the U.S. continued to record a sharp decline.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports reached US$1.14 billion in August 2026, up 6.4% year on year, bringing the total for the first eight months to more than US$8.0 billion, an increase of 11.9%. Monthly export value remained above US$1 billion, but August growth was only around half the rate recorded cumulatively through the first eight months. This indicates that the eight-month result was supported significantly by stronger performance in earlier months, while market conditions are entering a less predictable period.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Pangasius is attracting growing interest from Japanese seafood companies as prices of many traditional whitefish species remain high and supply becomes increasingly volatile. Notably, seafood group Kyokuyo has recently continued to feature pangasius among its priority products, highlighting its competitive pricing and stable supply.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As Vietnam’s tilapia industry searches for new growth opportunities, venturing into brackish-water aquaculture could unlock a formidable competitive moat. Bypassing the volume-and-price bloodbath against established global heavyweights, Vietnam could differentiate itself through high-quality tilapia products tailored to specific farming conditions and value-added market segments.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) 2026 is rapidly shaping up to be a formidable stress test for Vietnamese pangasius exports to the United States. While exports to alternative markets maintain a resilient growth trajectory, the U.S market has declined significantly. In the first eight months of the year, pangasius exports to the U.S fell by nearly 14% year-on-year, with August alone recording a decline of more than 50%. The trend shows that difficulties in the U.S. market are not driven solely by weak consumer demand, but also by multiple layers of trade barriers that are intensifying simultaneously, particularly additional import tariffs, anti-dumping duties and growing protectionism for the domestic catfish industry.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Japan are showing positive signals in 2026, indicating that the market is opening up greater opportunities for pangasius products, particularly processed and value-added products. In the first seven months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Japan reached US$31 million, up 20% year-on-year. In July alone, export value reached approximately US$5 million, up 30%.
On July 22, 2026, the Government issued Decree No. 292/2026/ND-CP detailing certain articles and providing measures for the organization and implementation of the Law on Foreign Trade Management. The Decree takes effect on September 5, 2026, replacing Decree No. 69/2018/ND-CP.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnamese pangasius producer Vinh Hoan has won the top prize at the 2026 Seafood Excellence Asia Awards for its Cured Panga Croquette, highlighting the growing potential of value-added pangasius products in international markets.
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