Thiptawat Suwantammarong, analyst at Asia Plus Securities, said "this is one of the worst crisis for Thai shrimp industry."
Production dropped by more than 50 percent compared to its normal production size of 500,000 metric tons a year. The consequences were severe: Shrimp prices went through the roof, and the shortage has left everyone scrambling for product.
Prasit Sujiravorakul, an analyst at BNP Paribas Securities, agreed with Suwantammarong, saying production levels could normalize by late spring. "The second quarter output this year plunged to 50 percent of normal levels and this will slightly go up throughout the rest of the year," he said.
Output will have recovered to a 20 percent gap compared to normal production levels by the end of this year, he predicted. As a result, prices will go down, and have already started going down. "The price came down 10 percent in the market last week," he told IntraFish.
Some analysts have predicted a shrimp price crash once
But as everyone has been hit by the crisis -- reflected in the financial statements of many of the big players --Thai producers will actually be better off next year, he said.
High debt-level The analysts are cautious. While Suwantammarong said the government and industry bodies have done a great deal to stop the disease from spreading, farmers are esitating to seed farms.
They want to see the implemented measurements actually work. "It is difficult to boost shrimp output to the level before the disease started spreading," he told IntraFish.
The issue now is there are no funds available to raise the farms again, as the debt level of farmers has risen throughout the outbreaks, said Sujiravorakul.
"They would need some sort of support," he said.
Strengthening cooperation with neighbors Panisuan Jamnarnwej, president of the Thai Frozen Foods Association (TFFA), is somewhat more optimistic.
In a statement, he said with the help of "corrective measures from the Thai Department of Fisheries, our association is confident this crisis will come to an end soon."
The association is currently looking to strengthen its trade relationship with
"They can help enlarging and intensifying the scale of aquaculture as well as shrimp farming," Jamnarnwej said.
His aim is for
This cooperation could also help
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tuna exports reached USD 81 million in April 2026, down 6% compared to the same period in 2025. In the first four months of the year, export turnover totaled USD 289 million, down 4.8%. Although the overall export picture has yet to brighten significantly, market trends are becoming increasingly diversified rather than moving in a single direction.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius industry is undergoing strong restructuring starting from the broodstock and fingerling segment in order to improve productivity, quality, and export competitiveness. This is considered a critical foundation for the sustainable development of the industry amid rising production costs and increasingly stringent market requirements.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to Vietnam Customs data, pangasius exports in April 2026 reached USD 206 million, up 18% compared to the same period in 2025 — marking another consecutive month of double-digit growth since the beginning of the year. Cumulative pangasius export turnover in the first four months of 2026 reached USD 720 million, up 17% year-on-year, reflecting the positive growth momentum of this key export product.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports in the first four months of 2026 maintained positive growth momentum, reaching approximately USD 1.5 billion, up 15% compared to the same period last year. However, behind this result lies diverging trends across markets, as the global shrimp industry continues to face pressure from inflation, high inventories, price competition, and increasing trade risks.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In Vinh Tuy commune (Kien Giang Province), many shrimp farmers are adopting bottom aeration systems and reporting clear economic benefits, helping increase income and reduce production risks.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first three months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports of crabs and other crustaceans reached more than USD 93 million, up 23% compared to the same period last year. The result shows that the sector is experiencing a fairly positive recovery, especially in its two key product groups: crabs and swimming crabs. However, behind the growth figures are several concerns: export markets remain highly concentrated, raw material supply is unstable, and trade barriers from the US and EU are becoming increasingly stringent.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In Ca Mau province, many farmers are transitioning from traditional methods to high-tech shrimp farming, adopting recirculating systems with minimal water exchange to improve efficiency and reduce risks. In Hung My commune alone, there are about 260 super-intensive shrimp farming households covering more than 265 hectares, playing a key role in local economic development.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first three months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports of fish cake and surimi reached USD 63 million, down 5% compared to the same period last year. Although total export value declined slightly due to decreases in some key markets, many other destinations continued to post strong growth, opening up room for this convenience-oriented processed segment in the coming quarters.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Favorable weather conditions in the early months of 2026 have brought encouraging signs for fisheries activities in Quang Tri. Output has grown steadily, contributing to improved livelihoods for local residents.
Entering 2026, Vietnam’s seafood industry is facing a period of both high expectations and mounting pressures. Following the positive recovery in 2025, production and export activities in Q1/2026 demonstrated the strong adaptability of Vietnam’s seafood business community amid continued global trade volatility, intensifying international competition, and increasingly stringent compliance requirements in import markets.
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