(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In recent years, the US has consistently been Vietnam’s largest seafood export market. Over the past five years, seafood export turnover to the US has ranged from 1.5 billion USD to 2.1 billion USD anually. Despite facing strict protective policies such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties, U.S. market demand remains high, and the quality of Vietnamese seafood continues to improve, helping to maintain and expand its position in this market.
Therefore, Vietnam’s seafood trade with the US is minimally impacted by political fluctuations, such as the US presidential election results, even though the election outcomes can cause disruptions in global trade. However, if Donald Trump is re-elected, his specific trade policies could present both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood exports in the coming period.
Opportunities from the U.S.- China trade war
In the U.S.-China trade conflict, there could be major shifts in U.S. supply chains and imports. The U.S. may reduce its seafood imports from China and look for other suppliers, including Vietnam.
Vietnam’s main seafood exports to the U.S. are shrimp and pangasius, and higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese seafood could create big chances for Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius to replace Chinese products. This change would boost Vietnam’s seafood exports to the U.S. market. Additionally, if China reduces seafood imports from the U.S., it might start importing more seafood from Vietnam instead.
As the trade war intensifies, global supply chains may be disrupted, creating an opportunity for Vietnam to become a reliable alternative supplier for countries seeking to avoid high U.S. tariffs, especially for seafood products. Thus, Vietnam could be chosen as a substitute supplier in the global supply chain.
However, to fully seize these opportunities, Vietnamese seafood businesses need to maintain high product quality, increase value-added processing, and leverage free trade agreements (FTAs) to expand their market reach and enhance their competitiveness.
Challenges from U.S. trade defense policies
While Vietnam may benefit from some opportunities arising from the U.S.-China trade war, Vietnamese seafood businesses also face U.S. trade defense measures. These may include anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties, and strict product quality requirements.
Even though anti-dumping duties on shrimp and pangasius and countervailing duties on Vietnamese shrimp exported to the U.S. are expected to be more favorable in 2024, businesses still need to be cautious and strategic when exporting to this market. The U.S. government, especially under Trump, strengthened protective measures related to food safety and quality standards. This could make it challenging for Vietnamese seafood exporters to meet stricter food safety requirements, leading to higher production and inspection costs.
Additionally, U.S. protectionist policies and tariff barriers could increase competition for Vietnam from other major seafood-exporting countries like India, Ecuador, and Indonesia, which are strong competitors in the seafood industry.
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By the end of October 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports to the U.S. reached $1.5 billion, a 15% increase compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that for the full year 2024, seafood exports to the U.S. will bring in $1.85 billion, a 19% increase over 2023.
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Recommendations for Vietnamese seafood companies
To enhance seafood exports to the U.S. in a changing trade environment, Vietnamese seafood companies need to be proactive and flexible in adapting to market shifts.
Seafood exports must fully meet U.S. FDA (Food and Drug Administration) rules, including hygiene, food safety, and disease prevention standards. Companies should also maintain sustainable production and strict quality control from farming to processing to meet the growing standards of the U.S. market.
American consumers are increasingly interested in sustainability, environmental protection, and social responsibility. To meet these expectations, Vietnamese seafood companies should adopt sustainable farming practices, like eco-friendly shrimp farming, and follow international standards (GlobalGAP, ASC, MSC) to enhance their reputation and meet the rising expectations of the market.
Businesses should provide transparent information on production processes, raw material origins, and quality standards. This will help build trust with U.S. consumers and partners and meet the needs of distributors, supermarkets, and major retail chains in the U.S.
Vietnamese seafood companies need to boost their competitiveness, develop effective production and business strategies, and offer products at reasonable and transparent prices. At the same time, companies should have rapid response plans for changes in U.S. tariffs and trade measures.