(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The EU has been one of the largest consumers of Vietnamese pangasius over the past decade. However, data from Vietnam Customs reveals a gradual decline in EU imports of pangasius from Vietnam over the last five years.
In 2015, the EU ranked second among the largest importers of Vietnamese pangasius, trailing only the US, with export turnover reaching USD 285 million. A decade later, in 2024, the market has fallen to fourth place, surpassed by China & Hong Kong, the US, and CPTPP member countries. Total pangasius export turnover to the EU in 2024 reached USD 161 million, a 5% decrease compared to 2023 and a significant 44% decrease compared to 2015.
This decline is evident across most product segments. In the value-added pangasius segment, EU imports from Vietnam exceeded USD 8 million in 2015. Ten years later, in 2024, this market imported just over USD 3.5 million worth of value-added pangasius products from Vietnam, a slight 3% increase compared to 2023. Of the past ten years, 2023 witnessed the most "bleak" year for value-added pangasius exports to the EU, while 2017 recorded the highest level.
Exports of other frozen pangasius products (whole, fillets, etc.) to the EU in 2024 increased by 2% compared to 2023. Over the past ten years, since 2015, exports of these products to the EU in 2022 are considered to have reached the highest value, with nearly USD 10 million, almost doubling compared to 2021, followed by 2024. Although the increase is not high, this is still a fairly positive result that the pangasius export industry received in 2024.
So, what outcome awaits pangasius exports to the EU in 2025? The 2025 economy is likened to a convalescent recovering from a bout of COVID-related illness. Its resilience remains weak and highly susceptible to headwinds - potential risks that may arise in 2025. The global economy continues to face numerous challenges. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, political gridlock in Germany and France, and growing concerns about the Chinese economy further cloud the picture. Escalating conflicts could disrupt energy markets, impact confidence and growth, hinder trade growth, and trigger sudden adjustments in financial markets.
The EU market, home to many important customers of Vietnamese pangasius, is unlikely to escape these impacts. However, it is still too early to draw conclusions or make accurate forecasts about consumer demand in this market bloc, as it depends on many factors, including the aforementioned objective reasons and subjective impacts from prices.