(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On the afternoon of November 6th, Vietnam time, U.S. media announced the preliminary vote count showing that Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election. His victory is expected to bring significant changes in taxes, trade, investment, and more. As a result, Vietnam's tuna exports will also be affected.
What opportunities exist for Vietnam tuna?
Currently, the U.S. is the largest market for tuna exports, accounting for over 38% of Vietnam's total tuna export value. Vietnam's tuna exports to this market have been steadily increasing over the past 10 years, rising from $175 million in 2014 to nearly $327 million in 2023, almost doubling.
In 2023, due to the impact of inflation, Vietnam's tuna exports to the U.S. dropped by 33% compared to 2022. However, in 2024, exports to this market have been steadily increasing. While the growth rate slowed down in the last months of the year, the export value remains higher compared to the same period in the past two years.
During his first term, Donald Trump implemented high tariffs on imported tuna products from China, causing U.S. importers to shift their focus to Vietnam. This helped Vietnam increase its market share in the U.S. tuna market in recent years.
In his second term, Trump proposed imposing tariffs of 10-20% on imports from other countries, with China facing up to 60%. This presents an opportunity for Vietnamese seafood products, including tuna, to increase exports to the U.S.
Opportunities come with challenges
In his second term, Trump has made reducing the trade deficit a priority, meaning the U.S. will closely monitor the origin of products. Therefore, Vietnam will face new trade defense measures from the U.S., including stricter controls on imported seafood and quality standards.
Moreover, many experts predict that, due to its geographical proximity to China, Vietnam could be seen as a gateway for Chinese goods entering the U.S. The U.S. government might try to block this loophole and impose tariffs on goods from Vietnam. As a result, Vietnam's seafood industry, including tuna, may face challenges if demand from the U.S. decreases due to high tariffs making imports too expensive.
Additionally, if losing the U.S. market, Chinese tuna exporters may look to shift their focus to other markets like the EU and the Middle East.
Specifically, after Chinese tuna products were hit with high tariffs during Trump's first term, Chinese producers shifted their exports to the EU market. This has increased competition in those markets.