The prices for skipjack tuna raw material on auction in Bangkok, Thailand are continuing to fall, with further drops expected by industry sources.
For late October and early November, the prices are at around $1,700-$1,720 per metric ton, cost and freight (CNF) Bangkok, for whole round, frozen skipjack, in sizes of 4-7.5 pounds (1.8-3.4 kilos).
Since hitting a peak of around $2,350/t in April, prices have continued to fall, with the current level down around 27% of this peak.
“For December, I wouldn’t be surprised if it [the price in Bangkok] dropped again,” an Asia-based source with a supplier told Undercurrent News.
Another source, based in the US, said he’d heard talk circulating of a deal done at $1,650/t, adding the price is definitely at $1,700/t.
“It’s certainly going in that direction [$1,650/t], which I think we will see for December fish deliveries, as the boats are now back fishing on FADS [fish aggregating devices]” in the Western Pacific, he toldUndercurrent.
From July 1 to Oct. 31, the Western and Central Pacific Ocean is closed to fishing using FADs.
Fishing was weak in the final few months of the FAD closure, sources said, with a lot of small fish caught. Despite this, prices continued to fall.
“Thai canners are trying to push the price of tuna down very hard, despite poor fishing in the Western Pacific the last couple of months, due to the FAD closure,” said one US-based source.
“It’s a ‘game of chicken’, between the traders and Thai processors right now, with the traders trying to hold the price up,” he said.
“If fishing is strong, expect prices to drop further,” said the source, of the next few weeks. “If fishing is soft, they will bounce right back up to $2,000/t.”
Buyers are aware the market is falling and plants around the world — Bangkok, Europe; West Africa; Indian Ocean; and Ecuador — are well stocked, sources said.
“With most finished product buyers in the US and Europe aware that prices are falling, but not yet bottomed-out, they are still staying out of the market, unless they have immediate need of some product,” one source told Undercurrent.
“So, production volumes haven’t picked up to a level that will absorb this fish in the short term. We still have some way to go, in my opinion,” he said.
“Worldwide, canneries are mostly well supplied, with some Bangkok plants covered well into January, so canners can out-wait the traders in many cases. Interesting times ahead,” the source said.