The Undersecretariat of Fisheries and Aquaculture (Subpesca) estimates that next year, salmon and trout total production will be about 530,000 tonnes, which represents a decrease of 24 per cent compared to that expected for 2013, reaching 700,000 tonnes.
This reduction is a consequence of lower stockings and of the new limits set for the fish density in the water. Anyway, the Chilean government predicts an improvement in profitability.
The sector also faces the impact of disease outbreaks caused by the infectious salmon anemia (ISA) virus, caligidosis (sea lice) and salmon rickettsial syndrome (SRS) in Region XI districts.
Under the new Law on Fisheries, the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (Sernapesca) decided to limit stockings in two production districts, 20 and 18 A, due to the increased presence of parasites and to poor sanitary performance, by having more fish in the water than recommended.
This provision implies a 10 per cent reduction in Atlantic salmon stockings compared to 2012; a 38 per cent fall of Pacific salmon; and a 36 per cent drop in trout, the newspaper La Tercera reported.
In addition, in November another measure related to the regulation of stocking densities will take effect in the cages of the regions X, XI and XII, and later in the districts.
In 2011 the salmon industry recorded sales for USD 2,925 million, a historical value, but these were also falls in price. In 2012, its returns rose slightly, a trend that continues today.
In March, the average price of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet in Miami was paid USD 5.18 a pound, representing 47 per cent more than at the end of 2012 (USD 3.53).
Subpesca head, Pablo Galilea, argues that the industry will have to "be readapted" and that the production will tend to stabilize at between 600,000 and 650,000 tonnes per year in the next three to four years. For the undersecretary, in the short and medium term Chile will not produce at record levels again.
"What one could project is that the business will recover its profitability because prices are expected to increase, probably not at the profitability levels the industry had at the time because costs are rising, but at reasonable margins. It will not be the boom that it once was," Galilea pointed out.
In addition, the general manager of the Association of Chilean Salmon Industry AG (SalmonChile), Cristian Moreno, clarified that production reduction is within specific health programmes to combat sea lice and the SRS.
But the authority is considering extending the stocking limitations to two further districts located in Puerto Montt and in Aysen.
"We have defined those areas that can become a problem from the sanitary point of view and intense surveillance will be determined on them," in this regard said José Miguel Burgos, head of Subpesca Aquaculture Department.
Meanwhile, Blumar general manager, Gerardo Balbontín, recalled that in 2012 around 800,000 tonnes of salmon were produced in Chile and predicts that this year, when some health problems have been observed, the level will be lower.
"It's hard to think that we will reach one million tonnes and have a sustainable business, as things have now been noticed," he expressed earlier this month in a statement to Estrategia.