Global feed experts agree there is more growth to come in the aquaculture feed sector due to the availability of protein substitutes
Despite the significant decline in fishmeal and fish oil supplies expected this year from Peru -- the largest source of fishmeal andfish oil in the world -- the supply of aquaculture feed is going to continueto rise, says the $1 billion animal feed supplement behemouth Alltech.
"I would believe we're going to see a very large increase in aquaculture feed [over the next few years]," Aiden Connolly, vice president of Alltech, told listeners during the company's 2013 Global Feed Survey results webinar early Monday morning.
The company, which provides feed production information to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), is also predicting a dramatic increase in aquaculture production in the near future, Connolly said.
Feed for aquaculture currently makes up 5 percent of global feed production, but Connolly "wouldn't be surprised if it grew to 8 to 10 percent of the world market in the near future."
Regulations are increasing in regards to contaminants, which has put a slow on some of the world's feed production, but aquaculture may be less affected than beef or poultry due to demand.
"Obviously, we have a very dramatic situation wherewe cannot continue to fish the amount of fish out of the sea that we have in the past,” Connolly said. “People want to eat more fish because, just like chicken, it is perceived [as] very healthy."
The results of Alltech's survey show a whopping 44,793 million metric tons global fish feed production level last year – a 55 percent increase over the prior year. Some of the increase comes from more companies being included in the survey this year, but most reflects a widespread production increase trend, Connolly said.
The near 45 million metric ton production level may come as a surprise to the industry, International Fishmeal and Fish Oil Organization (IFFO) Technical Director Andrew Jackson told IntraFish.
“It's a big number, and I think a lot of people don't know just how big that number is,” Jackson said.
Like Alltech, the IFFO expects that number to continue to rise. It is expecting gains of about 7 to 8 percent this year and perhaps as high as ten percent, Jackson said.
Achieving growth in a supply-strapped industry
How will feed producers manage to increase fish feed production while fishmeal and oil – two of the most important ingredients in salmon and shrimp feed – decrease?
The answer is that for one, fishmeal and oil are becoming less important ingredients as feed producers find more and more viable protein substitutes.
“Fishmeal has traditionally represented a very verylarge percentage of the diets of fish, and that isnot going to continue,” Connolly told IntraFishduring the webinar's question and answer period. “Most of the companies we work with in the feed milling area have already started to address that. Many of them are at 10 to 15 percent of fishmeal today, and many are looking to eliminate it completely.
Connolly expects global aquaculture feed productionto surpass the 50 million metric ton mark in the next few years, which would be a big milestone, both statistically and psychologically speaking, for the industry, Connolly said