However, this is not necessarily the disaster some are predicting in terms of overall supply to the market. The figure of 50,000 metric tons to 60,000 metric tons is an estimate of what the weight would be at actual harvest time, not necessarily the actual weight of raw material lost, he told IntraFish.
Overall farmed shrimp volume shouldn’t be impacted by the floods in Thailand, but prices are likely to remain firm into the fourth quarter, a Thailand-based executive told IntraFish. “It is estimated that the flooding has wiped out 50,000 metric tons to 60,000 metric tons of raw material across eight provinces or approximately 10 percent of annual production,” said Jim Gulkin (pictured), whose Bangkok-based company Siam Canadian exports shrimp and other seafood products from Thailand and Asia.
However, this is not necessarily the disaster some are predicting in terms of overall supply to the market. The figure of 50,000 metric tons to 60,000 metric tons is an estimate of what the weight would be at actual harvest time, not necessarily the actual weight of raw material lost, he told IntraFish.
“Due to an unusually long cold season in Thailand, pond seeding was delayed until February in many cases the majority of the shrimp lost were still at juvenile stage," Gulkin said. "The ponds that lost the shrimp should be ready for re-seeding in only a few weeks time assuming there is no major damage to the ponds themselves.”
“Before the flooding happened we were expecting landings to improve starting in April with production increasing substantially through May and June. With the raw material lost in the flooding, improvement in landings will be delayed to June-July,” he said. “Because this happened so early in the year and when much of the crop was still in the juvenile stage, it is likely that the farmers will have time to play catch up over the course of the year.”
Raw material prices are high so incentive for farmers is certainly there to re-seed ponds, he said. “My instinct tells me that the overall raw material supply for 2011 will not be seriously affected. What we are probably looking at is a delay in major harvests from April to June to July to August rather than a major drop in overall production for 2011.”
So, the industry is now looking at firm prices throughout the first half of 2011. “If there is any relief in pricing it won’t happen until sometime in the third quarter of 2011. However that is peak processing time so I would not bet heavily on a price drop then,” Gulkin said. “Perhaps we might see some softening in the fourth quarter of 2011, when the majority of orders are processed but harvests continue later than usual due to the delay caused by this flooding.” The flood news has had an impact on shrimp prices in the United States.
Prices for shrimp from the Gulf of Mexico are firm, as speculators jumped in to buy on news of floods in Thailand hitting production, said Chuck Anderson, a broker with Philly Seafood, a U.S.-based shrimp harvester and supplier.