EMS is the fourth major disease outbreak to hit Mexican shrimp growers in the last 23 years, and according to the discussions at the recent NFI Global Seafood Marketing Conference, it will have the most severe impact yet, and is catastrophic for the industry.
Imports of headless shrimp from Mexico to the US are down 32.8% through November. As the disease took hold, total aquaculture shrimp production was expected to fall from about 100,000 tons to 55,000 tons according to official statistics. Now that 55,000 ton number looks optimistic.
The disease has hit Sonora much harder than Sinaloa, where farmers have taken more effective measures. In Sonora, production is expected to fall more than 66%, while in Sinaloa, production will be down between 30% and 40%.
Sonora based shrimp production peaked in 2009 at around 85,000 tons, but disease issues and farmers switching to other crops have pushed that number down to 35,000 tons in 2012, and likely lower than 12,000 tons in 2013.
Little improvement is expected next year. Bill Hoenig, president of Delta Blue Aquaculture and one of the speakers at the NFI conference, estimated that only about 60% of the farms will even stock next year, and those that do will only do one quick cycle.
The strength of the Mexican domestic shrimp market has sent prices for even small size shrimp skyrocketing to over $4.00 a pound in Mexico, and $4.50 wholesale in the U.S.
At these prices farmers will harvest small shrimp at the drop of a hat, and not take the risk of keeping shrimp in their ponds if they get the slightest whiff of problems.
Over the long term, says Hoenig, there will be substantial consolidation as only those farmers who will invest in more intensive shrimp culture will be able to survive, and they will be buying up the weaker farms, who cannot invest.
