Rabobank calls demand in both regions better than expected despite this year’s persistently high prices in its most recent report “A New Dawn for the Prawn”.
On the supplying side, China, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Mexico continued struggling under production problems while suppliers in India, Indonesia and Ecuador stepped up production to take advantage of the high prices.
The United States is poised to import more shrimp than ever before this year, thanks to steady macroeconomic recovery and a high US dollar, Rabobank said.
The record is likely to hit for both value and volume of imports, with Rabobank seeing a “stronger recovery than even the most optimistic forecasts” during the first three quarters of the year, Rabobank said.
In value terms, the year-to-date US import value record was largely due to prices, although volume certainly played a part as well, considering import volumes are also on track for a record in 2014. The total value of imports reached $4.8 billion during the first three quarters of the year.
In terms of volume, the US is poised to import roughly 405,000 metric tons this year, slightly surpassing the record set in 2011.
Rabobank attributes better than expected US and EU markets partly to the record high beef prices, which were up due to a 7% supply contraction. This may have softened any impact on demand as shrimp prices remained strong.
In Europe, the volumes are not nearly as strong as they are in the US this year from a historic perspective, as the continent appears on track to hit about 300,000 metric tons of imports this year, which is down compared to its record of over 325,000 metric tons in 2011.
Yet the EU did set a record during the first half of the year in terms of the total value of shrimp imports, according to statistics from Eurostat.
Midway through the year, EU imports were rebounding but from a low level seen in 2013, when high shrimp prices weighed heavily on demand and sellers found it difficult to draw in consumers with promotions.
Both of these markets were better able to stomach the increased shrimp prices than that of Japan, where imports of shrimp declined 20% this year over last year after a 3% decline in 2013 over 2012.
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